A recession does not equal a housing crisis. That’s the one thing that every homeowner today needs to know. Everywhere you look, experts are warning we could be heading toward a recession, and if true, an economic slowdown doesn’t mean homes will lose value.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession this way:
“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.”
To help show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, take a look at the historical data. There have been six recessions in this country over the past four decades. As the graph below shows, looking at the recessions going all the way back to the 1980s, home prices appreciated four times and depreciated only two times. So, historically, there’s proof that when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will fall or depreciate.
The first occasion on the graph when home values depreciated was in the early 1990s when home prices dropped by less than 2%. It happened again during the housing crisis in 2008 when home values declined by almost 20%. Most people vividly remember the housing crisis in 2008 and think if we were to fall into a recession that we’d repeat what happened then. But this housing market isn’t a bubble that’s about to burst. The fundamentals are very different today than they were in 2008. So, we shouldn’t assume we’re heading down the same path.
Bottom Line
We’re not in a recession in this country, but if one is coming, it doesn’t mean homes will lose value. History proves a recession doesn’t equal a housing crisis.
Chrysti Tovani is a Fair Oaks Real Estate Advisor, Transition Specialist, and the author of Downsizing with Intention. She helps homeowners sell long held homes, downsize with clarity, and navigate major life transitions with confidence and strategic guidance.
With decades of experience in real estate, mortgage, and title, Chrysti brings deep industry knowledge and thoughtful preparation to every transaction. Her approach blends strategic home marketing, skilled negotiation, and emotional intelligence, ensuring that each move is handled with both precision and care.
As the founder of I Love Fair Oaks, a hyperlocal media platform highlighting trusted businesses and community life in Fair Oaks, California, Chrysti has built an integrated authority ecosystem that connects real estate expertise with community leadership.
Her work centers on clarity, visibility, and long term legacy, helping clients move forward with confidence while strengthening the community she serves.
When mortgage forbearance plans were first announced and the pandemic surged through the country in early 2020, many homeowners were allowed to pause their mortgage payments. Some analysts were concerned that once the forbearance program ended, the housing market would experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. […]
